Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in academia but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with the basics. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. Both authors two articles that seek impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the idea that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster should participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
